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Pick Author: November 12th, 2015

NFL Week 10: TNF NY Jets vs BUF Bills Totals

Game Date Home Team Away Team Pick Units Odds State Invested Return Profit
11/12/2015 NY Jets BUF Bills Under 43 5 -133 Win 665 1165 500
Buffalo’s Overall Scoring vs New York’s Overall Defense 26.1 8 20.3 9
Buffalo’s Road Passing vs New York’s Home Defense 206.3 28 213.5 10
Buffalo’s Road Rushing vs New York’s Home Defense 131.0 4 89.8 10
New York’s Overall Scoring vs Buffalo’s Overall Defense 25.0 11 23.8 16
New York’s Home Passing vs Buffalo’s Road Passing Defense 242.3 18 214.3 4
New York’s Home Rushing vs Buffalo’s Road Rushing Defense 112.8 20 106.3 13

Take a look at the table above. I know that the same strategy I’m going to use here, didn’t exactly work with the game in Carolina when the Panthers and the Packers blasted each other with points. But the same strategy did work in Denver. What strategy? Simple one. On one hand we have the algorithm that calculates us a 24.4 – 23.2 score between the teams in Jets favor. On the other hand – looking at the offensive tools each team has makes it clear that the Bills have a great advantage running the ball (4th road offense rushing against the 10th home defense against the run) while the last thing the Jets want to do is pass the ball against the Bills (18th home passing offense against the 4th road defense against the passing offense). Now let us take a moment and decipher Vegas intentions here: they know that any kid making a simple calculation will figure that the totals in this game should be set around 47 to 48 points by simply adding each teams output point wise against each team allowing the points arithmetically . So, how come the line released was 44.5 luring in all the “sharps” and despite 8 out of every 10 bettors being on Over – the line has dropped as low as 41.5? I was actually thinking to take 42.5 yesterday for an under but wanted to be assured that the line will continue to drop attracting more bettors for over and now I am assured about that. I will advise to buy some points here to avoid being meddled by the wise guys, but in case you can’t – it is still OK to take the bet with 41.5 but with lesser units (3).

This is a 5 units play

Under 43  -133

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