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Pick Author: November 16th, 2015

NFL Week 10: MNF CIN Bengals vs HOU Texans Totals

Game Date Home Team Away Team Pick Units Odds State Invested Return Profit
11/16/2015 CIN Bengals HOU Texans Under 48 5 -150 Win 750 1250 500

Tough game to call because of the money divided pretty equally on ATS, 8 out of each 10 dollars on the Bengals ML and 6 out of every 10 dollars on Over. No clarity despite the line movements because those do not constitute RLM’s (Reverse Line Movement when the line moves opposite to the amount of the money poured on one or another side or total) but the logical adjustments, since the score calculated arithmetically should be 27-19 Bengals which is 46 points and the Bengals -8. Well, the lines opened at the Bengals -12 and the Totals at 48 which were hoping to get the dollars on Over from the “sharps” who’d think that since the line is 2 points higher and those teams scored more than 48 only once between each other in last 10 games and that “once” happened in 2003 – so the game must be bound Over. Also another indicator in favor of inflated line and the totals is the fact that the Bengals need 13.7 yards to score a point which is very low number of yards per point scoring- while the Texans allow a point exactly at the same number of yards – 13.7- which is very low yardage per points allowed.

With all this said – it is a Monday Night after all and the Under is expected especially from two well rested defenses (15 days rest for the Texans and 11 days of rest for the Bengals – usually rested teams are first of all better in defense).

So, with less conviction than in other weeks but still with conviction – mostly because if the Texans want to win – the only chance they will have it is to slow down the game and with their high paced offense it will be hard to do since the only advantage they have is road passing offense against the home passing defense (4th against 13) and at all the other parameters the Texans are way disadvantaged – but the rivalry has it’s own rules and the only time the Bengals won by double digits was in 2002. True – then the Bengals were not 8-0, but they also were not 7-0-1 ATS which is more against them tonight than for them as the next game in Arizona would be perfectly set if they did as bad as lost tonight – went as big underdogs to Arizona which won in Seattle and then win SU there. That is my prediction for the Bengals if they succeed to lose.

I will make an exception and buy back 1.5 points to 48. But if you can’t – go for 46.5 as well. But if you can – do it to avoid being meddled by the “wise guys”.

This is a 5 Units Play

Under 48  -150

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