NFL Week 1: BUF BIlls vs IND Colts
|Game Date||Home Team||Away Team||Pick||Units||Odds||State||Invested||Return||Profit|
|09/13/2015||BUF Bills||IND Colts||Home +3||10||-125||Win||1250||2250||1000|
The season is long enough for me to back up the Colts, but in this particular game everything seems like check in favor of the Bills. Many reasons. The Colts are precisely the team the Bills are fitted to play against. especially at home. The Bills are way more powerful than in our general perception and the line supports that. Issuing -2.5 for the Colts is an invitation to pound the Colts which was widely accepted by the public. Yet – the line remained the same meaning that the money had it’s offset effect. In plain English – in order to leave the line as it was released, on ATS 4$ for the Bills had to come in against every $ for the Colts and on ML 1.5$ on the Bills for each $ on the Colts. That’s 5.5$ against 2$. Because 80% of the ATS bets are on the Colts and 60% of ML too are on the Colts. Make your math.
Although I believe that the Bills are going to win it big time SU – there is no need to get greedy. I’ll hook the half a point and will go for the Bills +3 at -125. I know that sounds a bit stupid, especially to the seasoned folk – but that is the way it is.
Indianapolis Colts team
Who is injured: A. Jones (I-R, Ankle, 2015-09-06), B. Werner (Prob Sun, Knee, 2015-09-12), D. Jackson (Prob Sun, Toe, 2015-09-12), D. Smith (Ques Sun, Undisclosed, 2015-09-11), G. Toler (Out Sun, Neck, 2015-09-12), J. Robinson (Prob Sun, Concussion, 2015-09-12), N. Irving (Prob Sun, Knee, 2015-09-12), R. Mathis (Ques Sun, Achilles, 2015-09-12), S. Moore (Prob Sun, Hip, 2015-09-08), S. Price (Prob Sun, Concussion, 2015-09-12), T. Hilton (Prob Sun, Concussion, 2015-09-08), T. Mitchel (I-R, Shoulder, 2015-09-01), V. Ballard (Out Sun, Hamstring, 2015-09-12)
Buffalo Bills team
Who is injured: C. Clay (Prob Sun, Knee, 2015-09-12), C. Hogan (Prob Sun, Knee, 2015-09-12), J. Wynn (I-R, Knee, 2015-08-18), K. Williams (Prob Sun, Illness, 2015-09-08), L. McCoy (Prob Sun, Hamstring, 2015-09-09), L. McKelvin (I-R, Knee, 2015-09-09), M. Dareus (Elig Week 2, Suspension, 2015-09-01), M. Goodwin (Out Sun, Ribs, 2015-09-09), M. Williams (Prob Sun, Calf, 2015-09-12), P. Harvin (Prob Sun, Hip, 2015-09-10), R. Woods (Prob Sun, Hip, 2015-09-12), S. Watkins (Prob Sun, Hamstring, 2015-09-12), T. Powell (I-R, Knee, 2015-08-18), T. Steward (Out Sun, Knee, 2015-09-10)
This is a 10 units play
BUF Bills +3 -125