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Pick Author: February 5th, 2014

NBA Tuesday: MIN Timberwolves vs LA Lakers Totals

Game Date Home Team Away Team Pick Units Odds State Invested Return Profit
02/04/2014 MIN Timberwolves LA Lakers Over 216.5 3 -125 Loss 375 0 -375

The Lakers couldn’t play any worse that they already are. Now add to that the injured players being forced to return and newly injured Pau Gasol and you will get an impossible situation for them in almost a must win situation record wise trying to avoid their worse losing streak. The pointless stat of not losing in Minnesota nearly seven years is irrelevant to the situation. On the other hand – absence of Nicola Pekovic on most European team in NBA can have an effect it’s defensive efforts. Same as the absence of Pau Gasol will have an effect on the Wolves defensive effort. Add to that an injection of two offensively productive players  – although coming from a lengthy absence due to injuries – on the Lakers side and I get a true shot at Over.

Now let’s take a look at the line as it was released – 216.5  – and how it has climbed up to 217.5 despite majority of the bets on Under, and we’re faced with a usual dilemma: is it a true RLM or is it due to the reason that  the minority of the bets on Over are containing actually more money than the vast majority of the bets on Under? I mean – by 4 different sources that have been more accurate than not over years, show in average that every 7 of the bets on totals are on Under…

well, all the reasons described above as how I see that game total wise, point out at Over for me. I will just buy a point down back to an original line to avoid not likely middling trap by the wise guys  – but generally – I’d be OK even if I couldn’t buy the points.

This is a 3 Units Play

Over 216.5   -125



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