We have two basic scenarios to evaluate before making the decision on to what side ATS to pick.
The game tonight will be affected by the sweep of the Hawks by the Cavs in a way that NBA and the Networks would wanna have at least one series running and since the finals must be evenly balanced – which is hard to do putting western conference champion against the eastern conference champion – it is better to have rested Cavs team against the worn out Warriors (or the Rockets). In that case – Houston is the play and the points are making it even more attractive pick. If someone believes that anything we see has to do with real basketball between two competitive teams – then I would also throw in the stats saying that Harden is brilliant in elimination games, Curry is shook up from the fall and 70% of the money line money is on the Warriors. Going back to those who (like me) think that basketball has very little to do with these series and generally – at least before the finals – I’d say that original scenario I drew before the game 3 and that perfectly played out so far said – GS in game 3, Houston in game 4 and 5. And then the game is 6 is for grabs, or Houston game 6 and then we know GS has game 7. Because the Clips had to pay the price for Houston to be here right now.
The game tonight again will be affected by the sweep of the Hawks in the hands of Cavs, but in different aspect: since NBA and the Networks wouldn’t wanna play out the similar scenario to the Clips Houston series and making it obvious that the games are predominantly preset and scripted – they will let the Warriors win and advance already tonight – making sure the audience is not too tired before the finals and will have the equal access for both teams to the rested rosters. In favor of the true basketball dreamers – I’d add that if you watch the 3 point views the Rockets got in game 4 in a slow motion – you will notice unbelievable pattern how the Rockets player dribbles back and forward signalling he is going to shoot the 3 and the Warriors defense is actually giving him a clear view to shoot. Also, regarding the fall of Curry – you can see clearly how he falls Judo style with his hand first slowing down the effect of the fall and reducing it professionally by rolling rather than falling. If I subscribed to this perspective of the Warriors being a better team than the Rockets – I’d also mention that the only thing the Warriors need to get a significant advantage on the Rockets is to foul the “Superman” in the paint all the time. I also would mention that 68% of the bets and 62% of the money is on the Rockets ATS (contrary to Money Line) and that is good enough reason for Vegas to veto the Rockets covering. The Con here is that it is contradicting my overall scenario of the script.
So, which one you like? Which one I like?
I have to stick with what brought me here and believe in what I believe. You also have to know that statistically – after each win achieved in a row – and now we stand at 7 in a row this being an eighth straight attempt to prolong the streak – our chances to win being reduced drastically because this is how it is in mathematics. So, you may consider double reverse conning me and fading me with each play I make after each win. I am not kidding. If I could – I’d probably would fade my own pick because of that possible travesty of my streak.
Anyways – I will wait for a halftime to support the winning side if given points as it was a hit 84% of the playoffs.
This is a 10 Units Play
HOU Rockets +9.5 -110