No Banner to display

For Subscribers archive

Article Author: December 5th, 2015

Towards Week 13 Sunday Games in NFL: Money, Trends and overall numbers

In order to identify the trends and their chance for continuity – here’s few variations on what is going to happen IF and HOW.

MIN Vikings vs SEA Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings are the team that makes living for the books from an Underdog positions and has the best ATS record as well as the “best” O/U trend that always helps the books. Not many teams have achieved such great numbers from books’ perspective while winning.  Combining those two – ATS and Totals – the Vikings are a clear Vegas Darlings this season.  With 9-2 ATS  (4-0 as Underdogs) and 1-8-2 O/U – they have been most of the time opposite to Public Joe bets and in few times that they did win majority of bettors’ hearts  – they did it against Big Money from Asia still maintaining a good standing with our own wise guys. Interestingly enough – they will be hosting this week the Reigning Vegas Darling – the Seahawks. Although the Seahawks succeeded to elude their supporters as many times as they have eluded their opposition supporters – they still never made so much fr the books in a regular season as the Vikings this season only. The Superbowl’s are a different story as the Seahawks have made the books money when they won the Superbowl as well as when they lost. And not only the Superbowl’s are their specialty but the whole Post Season plays for 2 years in a row.

So far – the line that opened at Pick and 41 is now Seattle -2 and 42. The public is heavy on Seattle with 7 out of every 10 ATS and 7 out of every 10 ML bettors are on the visitors. The Over is also a popular bet with 6.5 out of every 10 being on it. But the number of the bettors is not even a 20% of what is projected to be and you may say that those are people who think they know what is going to be by considering their picks as a direct result of professionally handicapping the games. That means that the lines still may change here.

What is Vegas angle here? Well, Vegas could let this one fly any direction and since nor NFL nor the books feel comfortable with 9 ATS winners out of 11 and 1-8-2 O/U records -while there is only a very small money on this game. So, as of now – and only now – the lean is the Seahawks -2 and Over 42. The realization of that lean would depend on the Public Joe joining on Sunday close to a game time and pounding one or another side to the extent that will force an external interference as much as uncomfortable we all feel about that kind of a terminology. So far – so good. Small money, small amount of bettors.

NO Saints vs CAR Panthers

The Carolina Panthers -on the other hand have cost Vegas and the books this season winning the hearts of Public Joes more than once. They will be playing in NO where by the trending they should lose ATS and may be even SU. Great deal of money on NO Saints make the books and Vegas uncomfortable desperately trying to get sime money in to even the action on the Panthers. In the first stage the line was released at CAR -7 -110. That has quickly changed to CAR -7  +110 and then to +105. Now the line stands at CAR -6.5 -110. The meaning is that the books and Vegas believed that if they draw the action on the Saints first by making them a TD underdogs at home  – they could always ven the action by dropping the line to -6.5 on CAR. But they got caught off guard by big money from the Asia which now will force them to have another interference on the behalf of the Panthers if the money won’t even out. And considering the amounts – the most betted game so far – that won’t be easy. The “I don’t give a flying … about you attitude of Cam Newton is trending as well and my lean here is against what I would bet at the beginning of this week – CAR -6.5. Over is almost Automatic here. But again. Those are only the leans.

The number of the bets on this game will grow and this may be the most betted of Afternoon games. So, we will follow the trending closely.

NY Giants vs NY Jets

Not as a popular game betting wise as I would think. Money is almost even and the public Joe is still asleep while the so called “sharps” are pounding the Giants and the Over. The Jets are a very good defensive team. The Giants are very unpredictable but they won’t be able to go thru the game with the passing offense only and on the ground they are awaited by one of the best rushing defenses. The Giants will be playing this one out like the Bills did and that is why I believe that they will force the Jets into mistakes while the QB advantage with Beckham and JPP may make the difference needed here. So, I lean, as for now – before the big money will come – and it will – The Giants +2.5 for -110 and may even buy a half a point to +3 just in case if I will bet this game. And the Under.

Vegas and the books will factor in this game only if the big money will com in unevenly.

This will be continued….

Article Author: September 14th, 2015

Handicapping Vegas Part 1

gfgfAs an experienced sports handicapper in particular and an inquisitive person in general – I made myself a rule never to take anything for granted. If I get some information or the stats about certain sporting event – first of all I have to check it’s authenticity and be 100% sure I am not being “had”.

Now, in order to intelligently handicap a sporting event – you have to make sure the stats and the info you receive are coming from different sources and they can be crosschecked before you can really depend on them or consider them as the part of your handicapping tool.

That is the way LVSC handicaps the games and creates the lines and the odds which later are conveyed to the books and we receive them after the books have doctored them and adjusted them with an updated information they receive from their sources.

Only after that we can actually begin handicap the games closely following the line changes as well as the odds going up and down, betting trends and the numbers of the bettors on various sides of the bets as well as the money thrown in support of each side, Money line, totals or the props.
When I handicap my games – I make sure I know it all.  I have to know what were the opening lines and the odds. I have to know what number of the early bettors (sharps) jumped on what side of the bet.  I have to distinct between the sharps and early markets.  I have to know how the odds are moving and if there is a reverse line movement (RLM). I have to know what are the hidden stats. Because an obvious stats are available for all and if only an obvious stats would be a factor – then everyone who reads them would be winners.

Since all the info I described above except the hidden stats are available for most  – and I can list the sources for all of the publicly available stats – the HIDDEN STATS are the game changer.

And that info is not publicly available. It is never free.

I would not touch it if it was free.

Because if it was free – that would be another tool Vegas uses to lead the sheep to the slaughter.

Since I’m being asked repeatedly what kind of a site and what kind of the hidden stats am I talking about – here it is  premium stats and systems

Article Author: February 8th, 2015

Gamma for All – recapping the first week of an official Gamma Platform Trading for All

Although officially the trading for all the eligible traders with Gamma Trading Platform began on last Monday,  February  2nd 2015 – the implementation of the system integrating all the eligible 100PercentProfitBot traders accounts within the Gamma Platform began on 27th of January 2015 following on decision  made by VOL1/100PercentProfitBot team. We were  reacting on the SwissNationalBank triggered events which threw the financial  markets into the turmoil.  The EuropeanCentralBank was supposed to provide the financial rescue vehicle in form of protecting the assets from wild speculative moves on part of the modern day “market  robbers” – but the ECB “froze” and its indecisiveness created even more turmoil. The regular financial instruments became useless in face of carefully orchestrated moves that had to do more with international politics than with the finance. That was the stage when 100PercentProfitBot versatility  – based on 3 different, totally independent from each other and absolutely modular trading systems  –  became handy.  Volatility and Slope Up/Down systems were traumatized by recent financial events and we decided to move all our traders to a carefully crafted, reverse engineering based Pattern Trading system which was previously an exclusive trading platform reserved for high risk experimental trading inhabited by “high roller traders” (original Wave ZERO Beta Testers) with bankrolls of over 30K. They were kind enough to cooperate without any reservation to allow us experiment with massive trading with the platform which till now was being used by only a few in a totally protected environment avoiding the risks of being bad priced because of  low margin trading results. They still reserve their obvious advantage based on large bankroll+max number of the broker accounts, so there was not really any reason for them not to welcome the changes that would benefit all.

We know that without addressing the issue of lag time between the first trader entered to a trading position by the BOT,  and the last one – we would once more have at our hands the issue of divergence in the results achieved. More than 2000 traders engaging the system simultaneously would for sure cause even bigger divergence in the results than before with the smaller number of traders. Therefore  – since we did not want to leave any eligible trader behind as we never do  – we decided to divide the traders into few groups that would trade separately from each other creating less lag time and allowing better results overall for a greater number of the traders. We just had to experiment with various numbers per group to find a close to perfect golden line that would not cause the last on line traders be affected by a bad pricing. That was the purpose for beginning the implementation while trading on 27th of January. We experimented with various numbers of the traders per group and stretched it till the moment where we saw that the bad pricing affects the trading results for more than a few. That experiment was very useful as the results achieved last week prove clearly that the bed pricing had a minimal to none affect on the trading results. The conclusion was that having more than 750 traders per group trading simultaneously is not safe from bad pricing issues. So, we divided the eligible traders number of which at that precise moment stood at 1982 into 3 groups: Group A, Group B and  Group C. 660, 660 and 662 were the numbers which today are of course different as the new traders are joining the list of the eligible ones on daily basis as well as those who encountered some issues trading before for various reasons – are also joining the trading circle.

Anyways – here’s a recap of the trades conducted on Gamma Trading Platform:

Between 27th and 29th of January 2015 unofficial experimental trading for the groups in order to find the right number of the members per group::

Group A  6-2

Group B  5-1

Group C 6-2

Groups A & D 5-1

Groups A & B 2-4

Groups A & C 3-2

Altogether  27-12

At this stage the traders are finally divided into 3 groups with defined traders per each group.

On Monday, 2nd of February 2015 the official trading with Gamma Platform have began and continued through Thursday, 5th of February:

Group A 4-2

Group B 5-1

Group C 4-2

Group A 14-10  (for the 1st time the Algorithm is activated and Wins at 7.5% bankroll trade size)

Most ended up 18-12 group A both sessions while one of the wins being a 7.5% size of a bankroll win. Those who traded with minimum sums of 25$ and 75$ in case of algorithm with 25% juice ended up with 75$ profit ((17X25X0.75)+(1X75X0.75))=318.75$+56.25$=375%, 12X25=300$. Profit=375$-300$=75$. An average juice for those 30 trades with all traders and the brokers used is 22.6%. So the real average profit is for minimum traders – ((17X25X0.774)+(75X0.774)=387$, 387$-300=87$ An average profit size considering not all ended up with the same result for those two sessions was 274.75$. Far from our goal but still a profit considering it was not a regular session with so many trades. Now, those are the numbers from the BOT and I just spread it out here for you to see what is achieved when we put as a goal to profit in any scenario and trading all the way till we do profit which I am sure I never saw anyone or anywhere has been achieved

Group B  4-2 (with 2 Algorithm Wins at 7.5 bankroll trade size)

Group C 3-5 but with a twist -Algorithm trades: 7.5% 3-2, 22.5% 1-1, 67.5% 1-0). Regardless to say the biggest profits being achieved with 3-5 record. The beauty of the Algorithm integrated with Gamma. 3-5 and still – the Minimum sum traders won on this sequence in average 289.75$!!! Average profit from the sequence considering all the traders with various bankroll stands at 1057.75$

Altogether 34-22, Algorithm 7.5% 3-2, 22.5% 1-1, 67.5% 1-0

Summing up all the trades for all the groups besides Group D that is no more in existence since the experiment was conducted: 61 wins, 34 losses.

Results since the implementation of the Gamma Trading Platform from Monday February 2nd 2015 per group:

Group A  – 18-12  An average juice for those 30 trades with all traders and the brokers used is 22.6%. So the average profit for minimum traders stands at – ((17 x 25 x 0.774)+(75 x 0.774)=387$, 387$-300$=87$. An average profit size considering not all ended up with the same result for those two sessions was 274.75$.

Group B – 9-3  An average juice for those 12 trades with all traders and the brokers used is 23%. So the average profit for minimum traders stands at  – ((7 x 25 x 0.77)+(2 x 75 x 0.75)=247.35$, 247.25$-75$=172.25$. An average profit size considering not all ended up with the same result for those two sessions was 541.25$.

Group C  7-7  An average profit for minimum traders on the two sequences (4-2, 3-5 with algorithm trades 5-3) stands at: 317.35$. Average profit from the both sequences considering all the traders with various bankroll stands at 1155$.

Those numbers are not even near the target. They are positive and and in the right direction, but the frequency of the trades has to increase in order to achieve the goals in preset time frame. The positive thing about those numbers besides them being moderately profitable – the system works correctly and is functional. The ultimate number of the traders per group is found and “targeted result trading” has proven itself. But on top of all those – the most positive thing is the implementation of Algorithm with Gamma.

***I want to thank MK for taking over  the forum in the days I fell ill and informative comments some of which were quoted above.

Copy this URL