Article Author: December 5th, 2015

Towards Week 13 Sunday Games in NFL: Money, Trends and overall numbers

In order to identify the trends and their chance for continuity – here’s few variations on what is going to happen IF and HOW.

MIN Vikings vs SEA Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings are the team that makes living for the books from an Underdog positions and has the best ATS record as well as the “best” O/U trend that always helps the books. Not many teams have achieved such great numbers from books’ perspective while winning.  Combining those two – ATS and Totals – the Vikings are a clear Vegas Darlings this season.  With 9-2 ATS  (4-0 as Underdogs) and 1-8-2 O/U – they have been most of the time opposite to Public Joe bets and in few times that they did win majority of bettors’ hearts  – they did it against Big Money from Asia still maintaining a good standing with our own wise guys. Interestingly enough – they will be hosting this week the Reigning Vegas Darling – the Seahawks. Although the Seahawks succeeded to elude their supporters as many times as they have eluded their opposition supporters – they still never made so much fr the books in a regular season as the Vikings this season only. The Superbowl’s are a different story as the Seahawks have made the books money when they won the Superbowl as well as when they lost. And not only the Superbowl’s are their specialty but the whole Post Season plays for 2 years in a row.

So far – the line that opened at Pick and 41 is now Seattle -2 and 42. The public is heavy on Seattle with 7 out of every 10 ATS and 7 out of every 10 ML bettors are on the visitors. The Over is also a popular bet with 6.5 out of every 10 being on it. But the number of the bettors is not even a 20% of what is projected to be and you may say that those are people who think they know what is going to be by considering their picks as a direct result of professionally handicapping the games. That means that the lines still may change here.

What is Vegas angle here? Well, Vegas could let this one fly any direction and since nor NFL nor the books feel comfortable with 9 ATS winners out of 11 and 1-8-2 O/U records -while there is only a very small money on this game. So, as of now – and only now – the lean is the Seahawks -2 and Over 42. The realization of that lean would depend on the Public Joe joining on Sunday close to a game time and pounding one or another side to the extent that will force an external interference as much as uncomfortable we all feel about that kind of a terminology. So far – so good. Small money, small amount of bettors.

NO Saints vs CAR Panthers

The Carolina Panthers -on the other hand have cost Vegas and the books this season winning the hearts of Public Joes more than once. They will be playing in NO where by the trending they should lose ATS and may be even SU. Great deal of money on NO Saints make the books and Vegas uncomfortable desperately trying to get sime money in to even the action on the Panthers. In the first stage the line was released at CAR -7 -110. That has quickly changed to CAR -7  +110 and then to +105. Now the line stands at CAR -6.5 -110. The meaning is that the books and Vegas believed that if they draw the action on the Saints first by making them a TD underdogs at home  – they could always ven the action by dropping the line to -6.5 on CAR. But they got caught off guard by big money from the Asia which now will force them to have another interference on the behalf of the Panthers if the money won’t even out. And considering the amounts – the most betted game so far – that won’t be easy. The “I don’t give a flying … about you attitude of Cam Newton is trending as well and my lean here is against what I would bet at the beginning of this week – CAR -6.5. Over is almost Automatic here. But again. Those are only the leans.

The number of the bets on this game will grow and this may be the most betted of Afternoon games. So, we will follow the trending closely.

NY Giants vs NY Jets

Not as a popular game betting wise as I would think. Money is almost even and the public Joe is still asleep while the so called “sharps” are pounding the Giants and the Over. The Jets are a very good defensive team. The Giants are very unpredictable but they won’t be able to go thru the game with the passing offense only and on the ground they are awaited by one of the best rushing defenses. The Giants will be playing this one out like the Bills did and that is why I believe that they will force the Jets into mistakes while the QB advantage with Beckham and JPP may make the difference needed here. So, I lean, as for now – before the big money will come – and it will – The Giants +2.5 for -110 and may even buy a half a point to +3 just in case if I will bet this game. And the Under.

Vegas and the books will factor in this game only if the big money will com in unevenly.

This will be continued….

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