Pick Author: October 29th, 2015

NFL Week 8: TNF NE Patriots vs MIA Dolphins Totals

Loss
Game Date Home Team Away Team Pick Units Odds State Invested Return Profit
10/29/2015 NE Patriots MIA Dolphins Over 51 5 -110 Loss 550 0 -550

Just saw a program on TV that explained why there will be a big margin between the longevity of the children born today. Because of their socioeconomic status. Yes. Those born into rich families may live well over 100 and may even cross 140 while the others will be scratching early Nineties. The genetic factor will disappear as the transplants will become the tool of the trade in the medicine and only the rich and well educated will afford that. Terrible if you’re intending to stay the way you are today. Terrible for you and for your descendants. Unless… Unless you’re already very rich and well educated and your betting habit is only the recreational one. But if you’re not “that” rich and if you’re intending to make a spots betting your main source of income and the way to the riches – you better embrace few basic principles: the first and utmost is having a sound Money Management system working for you. You should avoid emotional betting and also should know exactly what your bankroll is and how much you can allocate for each and every game. The other principle is to research all the factors that will have an influence on the outcome and not to succumb to a public sentiment favoring this or the other team just because of the general perception. And there are countless factors influencing the outcome of each and every bettable sporting event. The regular stats alone will not get you anywhere as the stats are exactly what they are – stats from the past. Stats are usually a good instrument used in a long run and if you’re not intending systematizing them – then you’re just wasting your time and money handicapping. You should take the Vegas factor as well as each and every game carries it’s own blue print of trending and anti trending depending on what is the line you have to deal with. Trap or not trap, ATS record of the team and the overall tendency to balance the ATS etc etc. And, if you do not have the time or the means to do a thorough research of all the ingredients that make up the final result – you better find someone who will be doing that for you. Someone who’s records are clear and well documented. Someone who embraces the few losses he experiences with love and learns from them instead of someone who always justifies his losses by accusing and blaming someone else for them. You need someone who is showing winning systematically and who does not go panicking after each time he encounters the wall and we all are hitting the wall from time to time. The most common factor blamed by inexperienced and failing handicappers after a marginal loss is a fix. Wrong. Be on the right of the fix. Or the Phix.

And if you don’t know where to start looking for such handicapper – you are at the right place. Because you just found one who’s record is unblemished and  publicly known (46-29-2 NFL this season, who posts his picks regularly and who is always there explaining each and every trend or the move. One who can tell the difference between the real Reverse Line Movement and between the false one. One who can identify Wise Guys meddling attempts and dumb moves of those  priding themselves as “sharps”. I’ve been handicapping sports for years and never ever had an overall losing record. I did not have to deposit since 2004 and always keep accounts in at least 5 books. I research all that can be researched because I love what I do and I always expose the fakers and the shavers.is

Today, while LVSC is history, instead of humans sitting and calculating the lines – we have algorithms doing that. My golden retriever came up with the same calculation as that algorithm did based on offensive and defensive stats. 29.15-22.75 NE.   :)     51.80 totals and and NE -6.4. Funny numbers rounded up for NE home up to 29.5-21.5. So, what are we missing here? Prime time back door cover? Lines that opened up at -8 and 51.5 are now at the same level after travelling up ATS and down the Totals.  27-24 NE? Or may be “shocking” loss at home for the first time in a long long time for the Pats?

The key numbers for me are those saying that the offensive trends of both teams are way better than the defensive trends.  The Pats overall scoring is number 1 against the Phins overall defense (number 15). And, the Phins overall offense is 9th against the Pats overall 12th defense. The Pats passing is second best against the Phins 11th  pass defense. The Phins are 11 in passing offense against the Pats 26th pass defense. The only place both teams have a better defense than the offense is at the rushing. That means both teams will be passing more than rushing exploiting their advantages which mean lost of points.

And remember that we may not win all the picks but in the long run we will certainly be in the green (or black) if we take the “right” picks (as we are now) and this one is definitely the right one.

This is a 5 Units Play

Over 51  -110

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