NBA Monday: BKN Nets vs TOR Raptors

When something like here happens usually it means either that the books doctored the line after LVSC releasing it too low or the big money as MK likes to say – went all on Over and picked the original line by two points in an opposite direction of majority of the bets. Sounds complicated? Let’s start from the beginning. Toronto’s overall scoring vs Brooklyn’s overall defense is 99.2 – 99.8. Brooklyn’s overall scoring vs Toronto’s overall defense is 97.3 – 96.9. Meaning that the most loghical score based on PPG averages should be TOR Raptors (99.2+99.8)/2= 99.5 vs BKN Nets (97.3+96.9)/2= 93.6. Now, Toronto’s away scoring against Brooklyn’s home defense is 97.1 vs 98.5 while Brooklyn’s home scoring vs Toronto’s away defense is 98.1 vs 95.4. Meaning the score must be TOR Raptors (97.1+98.5)/2= 97.8 vs BKN Nets (98.1+95.4)/2= 96.7.  So, we’re looking by the stats at TOR Raptors (99.5+97.8)/2= 98.65 vs BKN Nets (93.6+96.7)/2= 95.1. While the hosts are scoring more at home. Recent games also can be an indicator of what form the teams are in. Now, the line released was 189 points for totals and it moved up to 191. So, the totals line indicates me what goes on ATS wise while the Raptors are 3.5 point underdogs here although they opened at 5 points underdogs and all that despite the money and the bets flowing on home team ATS or ML.

In situations like that and especially on Mondays -I love underdogs away.

This is a 3 Unit play

TOR Raptors +3.5  -110