As an experienced sports handicapper in particular and an inquisitive person in general – I made myself a rule never to take anything for granted. If I get some information or the stats about certain sporting event – first of all I have to check it’s authencity and be 100% sure I am not being “had”.
Now, in order to intelligently handicap a sporting event – you have to make sure the stats and the info you receive are coming from different sources and they can be crosschecked before you can really depend on them or consider them as the part of your handicapping toolbox.
Only after that we can actually begin handicapping games closely following the line changes as well as the odds going up and down, betting trends and the numbers of the bettors on various sides of the bets as well as the money thrown in support of each side, Money line, totals or the props.
When I handicap my games – I make sure I know it all
I have to know what were the opening lines and the odds. I have to know what number of the early bettors (sharps) jumped on what side of the bet.
I have to distinct between the sharps and early markets.
I have to know how the odds are moving and if there is a reverse line movement (RLM).
I have to know what are the hidden stats. Because an obvious stats are available for all and if only an obvious stats would be a factor – then everyone who reads them would be winners.
Since all the info I described above except the hidden stats are available for most – and I can list the sources for all of the publicly available stats – the HIDDEN STATS are the game changer.
And that info is not publicly available. It is never free.
I would not touch it if it was free.
Because if it was free – that would be another tool Vegas uses to lead the sheep to the slaughter.
For some time I already being asked what are my sources and I was reluctant on giving the names as I am not here to advertise or promote no one as I have nor the need nor the right to do it. But the guys that run zcodesystem have to be given a credit because it is due. I never even once found their info to be false. Opposite is the truth as I did find with the help of their info that other sources were false and exposed them. So each time I am being asked about where I get my stats from and my info about what is going on with the market and who is on what and in what numbers – as in Kosher Boys days – we approach Ron Mike and Steve. Stay strong fellas! And good luck on your new venture. You deserve all the success you can get and thanks!
Now, after paying my dues to those 3 for years of free info – let us move on with tonight’s game.
If you remember I posted in my first game article that the games will most probably go: GS Game 1, Cavs Game 2, Cavs Game 3 and the Dubs again Game 4. But I have to change something here as I start to believe that game 4 is going to end with the Cavs covering.
2 scenarios here.
66% of all the ATS money is on the Dubs meaning the balancing is almost impossible till the game starts. 28% of the sum so far is -2.5, 27% on -3, 25% on -3.5 and the rest is divided evenly between -4 with -115 and -4 with -110.
Money line is even more one sided and favors the Dubs again.
So, if the Cavs lose but Cover the series will be tied 2 a piece and that way -138 Cavs +1.5 series bet will still have a chance not to cash. If the Cavs do win tonight and then the Dubs will win 2 to tie at 3 a piece – that way Cavs +1.5 Series will be a winner causing some losses to the books which is less likely to happen. But at the same time the public will throw money with love on LBJ who will underplay again.
We got to understand that the Dubs will win at least two more in these finals – the question when? I say tonight. Therefore ….
This is a 10 Units Play
CLE Cavaliers +4 -110