Everything You Wanted To Know About the Lines, But Were Afraid to Ask
I see in lots of places people write and discuss the Lines, Line Movements, Reverse Lines Movements, Majority of the Bets, Big Money, Sharps, Wise Guys, Asian Triads etc. And what I read is sometimes close to the truth but not understood how it should be, or is a total nonsense. Yes. As plain as that.
So, I really like to make an order and make clear few things, so when I, or my colleagues here talk about those subjects – I want you to remember what you read in here. I will try my best to explain all those terms and their application in orderly fashion.
Where and How the Lines and the Odds originate?
Imagine yourself a group of people who are a very experienced Handicappers sitting together in the office connected to all kinds of sources and getting all the necessary info in order to create a perfect line – line that is the closest to how the game in their perspective will end. Line that will divide the backers as evenly as possible. And that goes for the Spread as well as the Totals. Those professionals take into their consideration not only the stats. They a;so take into their consideration the injuries, players’, refs’ and coaches’ personal conditions if it has to do with their family or social life, how late they were partying the night before or if the flights were delayed etc etc. They also have an open ear for any kind of confirmed rumors about any shady activities on part of the players or the parties associated with the players, coaches, referees etc. They also continue to get updates after the release of the lines and notify their clients – the books – about those updates as they happen in real time. That body that incorporates all those professionals and releases the lines we see later is called Las Vegas Sports Consultants or LVSC ( http://www.lvsc.com/index2.html ). So, once the line is released to the books – now it’s their turn to adjust it to their personal interests based on what they expect the public reaction will be. As you know the big books – online or in Nevada Hotels profit mostly on Juice originating from evenly balanced bets – as many as they can get their hands on. The Urban myth about the Vegas fixing the games is somewhat different from reality and how it is mostly understood. That subject will be covered after all the basics will be explained here.
What Makes the Lines move?
Plain and simple – Money. Of course with the same exception as stated in the last sentence of the previous paragraph. when we see that the majority of the bets is on A side but the line moves in opposite direction – for an example – the line was released at LA Lakers -5 and the majority of the bets (80%) are on an opposing team (NY Knicks) ATS, and also on ML NYK – (75%) and yet – the line becomes LA Lakers -8, the occurrence is called Reverse Line Movement (RLM) and there are only two possible reasons for that:
- Although the majority of the bets are on the Knicks – the fewer bets contain More Money than the Majority of the bets (conditions for that are that the game is not the last game of the night or on a single/two/three game night).
- The books have a hard time balancing the bets and without an intervention they are going to lose lots of money. I can’t point out the person or the group that is approached at that case and if it’s within the League or through some Wise Guys outfit – but the results speak for themselves and it’s either some franchise player catching a bad night, or the refs, or – like in Miami Heat case -franchise player catching a “great” night but everyone else is in a darkness. One way or another the game ends up in a “dramatic” fashion making a regular non betting Joe very excited at the slogan – NBA where amazing happens – and make the League look very diverse and interesting. Again – I say all that judging by the results but sure have no hard evidence to back it.
Wise Guys and Sharps. Who they really are?
Let’s begin with the sharps. These individuals who are proudly carrying that nick are some very good handicappers who can “identify” the “miscalculations” on part of LVSC and “take” the right bet as soon as the line is released. If you ask me – that all is a nonsense as when they think they caught LVSC off guard – it is usually the opposite, meaning that LVSC caught them off guard. I haven’t seen actually the “sharps” holding a winning edge for a prolonged period of time as Yesterday’s Sharps usually become Tomorrow’s losers as soon as the hot streaks are over.
The Wise Guys – on the other hand – are a group of highly organized bettors who inject initially big amounts of money to move the line and create a snowball effect for the public to follow. Then some hour or so before the game they are taking the opposing bet actually risking the juice for a double winnings. For an example – the line was released at -6. The Wise Guys pound Over until the line is at -8 and then with public money help the line even climbs up to -9 or more. As a second step the Wise guys pound +9 or more thus assuring themselves single or double profit in case the game ends up somewhere between favorite winning between 6 and 9 points while risking only a juice. Once in few attempts they hit it which is good enough to grab the profits and cover the losses on juice for the games the Master Plan did not work. They do not pick ant game but the games they also have some inside leverage or info. Those organized bettors emerge usually from Asian markets and are called also Triads and work in a highly organized structures.
The other sort of Wise Guys are those who are connected and influence the outcomes of the games based on different tactics approaching the principal participants. That is a rare occurrence happening in lower leagues of European soccer and is not wide spread in the North American Professional Sports. If already we see their activities – they are usually the Books – those private local bookies who do not work on profit from Juice but playing against their clients. I believe that in extreme cases the Books – even those working usually with profits from Juice – approach those wise guys in order to influence the outcomes of the games where the balancing the bets failed in extreme manner.
So, is there a Fix or Not?
Most probably not in the forms we imagine to ourselves. I can say that on MNF, SNF and now also TNF in NFL, or a Thursday Night NBA games – the “fix” is not really done how it sounds but those are predetermined games when the League and the Books cooperate through some hidden from our eyes ways in order to generate Drama and the Profits at the same time. The Favorites are getting very comfortable lines but fail to cover. If its for the Whole Game or a Second Half bets or even a props. Public loses but has a feeling that there was a drama involved and repeats the same uneducated betting a week after. After all – we got to remember that the professional sports are first of all Business and as in any business there are employers and employees. So the Leagues are employing the Players, the Coaches, the Refs – all directly. And not directly they have other soldiers fighting their wars as the Reporters who create the hypes, Touts who advise in Unison to take a losing team etc. We, who have been in this long enough – seen it all and understand it. We only try to be on a winning side and are not passing any judgement or imagine ourselves that we are living in a pure world of honesty and decency. It’s all business – corporate America, the Leagues, Vegas, Merchandising etc. Selling TV and Online rights is not everything – you need to spread your markets and the worse thing is to have dynasties of winners like we had once. So, as much is this is only our private opinion we share with you – it does not say that it’s not the truth. Being on the right side of the “Fix” is the thing that matters. Everything else is just Bla Bla Bla.
Why are we here?
The reason we all incorporated here under the same roof – me, Phixer, SportsMavin and KingMidasTouch – is our goal to deliver winners based on one and only factor – to be on the same side as “Vegas”, “Books” and the “Wise Guys”. And I promise you that although many of you may have raised the eyebrow reading some of the stuff written above – it has been tested many times and the results speak for themselves.